Dating : What would next-level conflict look like in America?

The other day I visited a buddy of mine, we’ll call him Shamrock. He’s a dad, and he works in tech. He’s not prone to conspiracy theories, in fact he tends to laugh at my more out-there thinking. He told me, unprompted, that he thought the US has a 50/50 chance of seeing serious turmoil come November.

« More serious than this? » was my response.

Yes, he nodded.

I went into a list. More serious than massive unemployment, a deadly pandemic, shuttered businesses, protesting, counter-protesting, rioting, looting, arson, a curfew, federal troops in the streets, corrupt politicians on all sides, and a wannabe dictator threatening the election?

He nodded again.

That evening, a kid in Wisconsin used one of his mom’s AR-15s to shoot three BLM protestors, killing two. This was the second night in a row featuring shots fired into a peaceful protest. There have been many incidents like this over the past few years, but this one was largely caught on camera.

There was the video of cops in a military vehicle giving the murderer water and expressing their appreciation.

There was the video of shots being fired and people down.

There was the video of him running, confessing he shot someone.

There was the video of him stumbling and falling, two people attempting to disarm him, and him shooting at them, then standing and shooting more, then running alone toward the same police/military vehicle, hands up, gun dangling, as people all around maintain a safe distance while yelling that he is the shooter, as the police roll by him, asking for directions.

And then he got back into mom’s car, and went home.

But video also has a way of creating it’s own version of reality, and people were quick to point out other guns in the crowd, including at least one of the victims.

So on the other side of perception, you’ve got Mr. Goodytwoshoes, out to preserve the peace. Except, he had an illegal gun, and was out after curfew, in a town twenty miles away from his home. And then he used the gun.

I once considered getting a gun, then I learned your odds of dying by gunshot go up 600% just by owning one.

Back to the nod. Shamrock. 50/50. All of that.

When posed with the question of, « what is more serious turmoil than this? » my mind went first to Syria.

Why? Because they recently had a civil war. And that’s a solid worst case scenario.

Now I’m not an expert, but here’s one thing we should all know: even in the worst places of conflict, not every neighborhood was destroyed.

A better world is happening. Crazies and otherwise sane people alike have been running for the hills since the beginning of time. Sometimes, they are correct. The flood does come, the war does happen, the body snatchers do arrive. But sometimes, the world continues to muddle along, and they just moved to Canada.

Our thoughts lead to reality, and positive thoughts lead to positive outcomes. In a world of endless clicks, we tend to seek sensational content which will get our hearts pumping. So there’s a general inclination among content creators to look at the scary side of everything. This, of course, leads to the audience, all of us, thinking that bad shit is happening all the time, when our own observation might be totally different.

We might be chilling at home, when along comes a video of a guy getting shot in the back by police, and then another guy shooting more people while being praised by the police, and all of a sudden, we’re pissed off and outside in the streets, protesting.

So in general, I attempt to keep things positive in the content I create. And if you’ve been reading this blog and you’re now thinking, « What?!? He’s constantly talking about death, and fascism, and cops, and our fucked up leadership! », hold onto your hat. Because I’m about to go there.

Now, if anything, this coronavirus pandemic has shown me I don’t really have a clue how the future is going to go. Our response has surprised me, and the fallout continues to defy my predictions. So, let’s all be hopeful I’m about to be super wrong, and things go in a wonderful, awesome direction Z.

Something like Joe gets elected but Kamala winds up as president, then reveals her true colors as Barbara Lee steps in as Chief of Staff, while Bernie is appointed Secretary of the Treasury, and AOC takes over DHS.

At the end of every Republican Administration in my lifetime, there’s been a big crisis, and a recession.

Nixon handed the oil crisis to Carter. Bush1 started a war in Iraq, while the Rodney King riots were happening in LA, and got a recession going for Clinton1. Bush2 expanded the wars in the middle east, and crashed the economy for Obama. And now, this guy. Dear leader.

So far in the stage play put on by Texas every four years we call an election, we see the usual setup for a one-term GOP president. We’re in a crisis, and the recession is just getting kicked off. This would indicate that the player is supposed to leave the stage.

But what if the actor you’ve hired refuses to read the script? They know they’re supposed to be playing the villain, so they decide to adlib a little? You pull the curtains, and they just step in front?

Then you’ve got a real crisis. Or do you?

Once again, let me repeat, in Syria, not every neighborhood was destroyed.

Let’s look for clues. Los Angeles in 1992, the « Rodney King Riots, » took a step toward next-level.

There, what happened was the local cops retreated to protect the wealthy neighborhoods in the hills.

This left everyone else to fend for themselves.

Firefights broke out along racial lines, between Koreatown and South Central.

Eventually, troops arrived and went into one neighborhood, the black one.

And that was that. Generally, once the feds step in and start coordinating stuff, the rioting doesn’t go on too long.

Except recently in Portland, local cops didn’t seem to want to be coordinated by the DHS, and the feds seem to have retreated. For now.

But, say, what happens if we get sustained protesting? What if multiple cities have « autonomous zones » and local authorities refuse to go along with the national government?

Well, in Syria, everything seemed groovy for a while. It was their turn at the Arab Spring.

Then, the federal government started pushing barrels of diesel and nitrogen fertilizer out of helicopters. These explode with a big bang when they hit the ground. Or a hospital. Or you.

Then tanks start rolling through your neighborhood. These tanks are supplied by Russia. So you shoot back, with bullets provided by the USA. For free!

(Who ever said the US isn’t the land of the free?)

Then things get worse. You’ve got nothing to eat, and it’s looking increasingly likely you’re about to get killed. So you run.

Now, you’re a refugee. You’re begging for mercy, and getting rough treatment, except from some countries with empathy, but even there, it’s pretty tough, and it’s certainly not home.

And that’s, like, a good outcome.